The Washington Post reports a drop in Iraqi and US casualties in Iraq. Via Dan Drezner the Financial Times offers the same story with a bit more detail of interest to me.
The apparent decline also comes in spite of September’s partial overlap with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which usually sees an increase in attacks by Sunni Arab militants. A tally provided by Iraq’s health, interior and defence ministries quoted by news agencies noted 884 civilians killed in September, down from 1,773 in August, 1,653 in July and 1,227 in June.
The independent Iraq Body Count, which tallies press reports of civilian deaths, recorded higher numbers but showed a similar trajectory – 1,280 killed in September, 2,575 in August, 2,600 in July, and 2,092 in June.
US casualties also declined. Icasualties.org, a website which keeps a tally of US deaths, reported 63 fatalities in September, compared with 84 in August and 126 in May. September’s total is the lowest since July 2006.
Given past discrepancies, I don''t tend to trust either the U.S. or Iraq numbers on Iraqi casualties. However, the numbers on U.S. dead are going to be reliable and press reports provide some supporting evidence. If this bares out it is definite good news but the Post provides the still dreary context:
Numbers alone cannot describe the level of danger and the pervading sense of insecurity that still exist in much of Iraq. Some U.S. soldiers in Iraq have argued that sectarian cleansing in some Baghdad neighborhoods has progressed to the point that there are fewer opportunities for killing rivals. Many Iraqis still refuse to travel from their homes or immediate neighborhoods for fear of crossing into territory under the control of rival militias or insurgents. Thousands of residents each month are still driven from their homes and from the country, afraid for their lives.
In an interview Monday, Tariq al-Hashimi, one of Iraq's two vice presidents, said that the detention of thousands of people this year during the troop buildup has created dire long-term problems. Mass arrests and the prolonged detention of uncharged and sometimes innocent people fuel the sectarian hatred that drives much of the killing, he said...
[Rear Adm.] Fox stressed that while trends were "encouraging," violence overall still remained too high.
"There's no sense of 'We've accomplished what we want to accomplish here,' " he said.
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