So via Kevin Drum, Juan Cole and I seem to have a similar read.
My reading is that the US faced a dilemma in Iraq. It needed to have new provincial elections in an attempt to mollify the Sunni Arabs, especially in Sunni-majority provinces like Diyala, which has nevertheless been ruled by the Shiite Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq [ISCI]. But if they have provincial elections, their chief ally, the Islamic Supreme Council, might well lose southern provinces to the Sadr Movement. In turn, the Sadrists are demanding a timetable for US withdrawal, whereas ISCI wants US troops to remain. So the setting of October, 2008, as the date for provincial elections provoked this crisis.
I think Cheney probably told ISCI and Prime Minister al-Maliki that the way to fix this problem and forestall the Sadrists coming to power in Iraq, was to destroy the Mahdi Army, the Sadrists’ paramilitary.
For those of you who don’t remember, here’s my post from two days earlier. I won’t quote myself, as that’s silly.
Kevin Drum agrees and adds a few thoughts I also back:
First, Cheney’s visit came ten days ago and this operation seems to have been in the planning stages for several weeks. My guess is that this operation is Maliki’s idea, not ours, and Cheney merely offered his blessing and a promise of U.S. air/ground support.
Second, I continue to be slightly mystified that Muqtada al-Sadr continues to make such soothing noises. It seems increasingly unlikely that Maliki is targeting only rogue Sadrist groups, but despite this, "A statement released late Thursday by Sadr’s political office said the cleric remained committed to the cease-fire he imposed on his militia in August."
I’m not sure why Sadr is sticking to the ceasefire. My guess is that he feels sufficiently secure that he’s looking at the long game. While Maliki doesn’t really distinguish between Sadr’s people and "special groups" I think the U.S. does (although we might not in this offensive). So Sadr sticks this one out, the ceasefire with the U.S. kicks in again, and he’s facing no real threats that can keep his people from taking power in the provincial elections.
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