I spoke with our tour guide more today to nail down some uncertainties about land ownership in Egypt. She said more than 60% of the arable land is under government ownership, and that the farmers who work the land pay rent in taxes or in kind. The government does often want to claim the land for other purposes, but it sounds like the farmers successfully resist in a fair number of cases. I just saw today (April, 27) one notable example of successful resistance in the middle of Cairo. What's more, when land is seized it is reimbursed with other land. The replacement will likely be of lower quality, but that sounds like a hedge against lowballing and as a side effect slows the standard developmental transition from being a rural country to an urban one.
On the whole, these policies sound like a hedge against absolute poverty but that may also lock-in farmers. That lock-in could become a problem should urban unemployment decrease. Apparently the new government's agenda includes transitioning land from government to farmer ownership and renewed irrigation projects. Given the level of backlash against some of Mubarak's privatization policies, I'd suspect that any such steps would be pursued rather gingerly. Apparently achieving wheat self-sufficiency is also being discussed as a policy goal. I don't recall reading even liberal economist talking up self-sufficiency as a goal, but it may be a proxy for moving from subsistence farming towards a higher productivity agriculture. As an example, there's a narrow-gage railway in West Luxor for moving sugar cane which suggests that it is, or at least was, a crop that could be sold at market. I suspect that agriculture reform paired with the urban unemployment problem, will be the key tests for the upcoming democratically elected government.
Next: Luxor temple. That involve going out of chronological order, but I figure what readers I have left may be sick of farm talk.
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