Democracy

Thoughts with South Korean friends and colleagues

Myself and my spouse at the Seoul National AssemblyHaving just returned from a trip to Seoul a week ago Wednesday, I was shocked by the martial law declaration that happened there last night (this morning U.S. time). President Yoon declared martial law and banned political activity, accusing the opposition of insurgency. This was not only opposed by the Speaker Woo Won-Shik, of the opposition Democratic Party which won a big victory in April, but also by Han Dong-Hoon, the head of Yoon’s own party. The National Assembly gathered and voted to end the martial law, which they have the authority to do. President Yoon and Army Gen. Park An-Su, who was charged with enforcement of martial law, have not yet complied with that order.

Since the June Democracy movement of 1987, the Republic of Korea had faced a series of leaders going to jail on corruption charges. When we were visiting, there were protests in the city relating to a suspended sentence for the opposition leader. This had lead to some traffic congestion, but nothing unfamiliar to anyone living or working around Washington DC. My government, defense industry, and other former colleague meetings primarily involved curiosity about the recent U.S. election and what it means for cooperation. There was no sense of political crisis.

Approach to Korean National Assembly with various citizen groups in booths outside

We had visited the National Assembly for a quick tour that trip and also had a chance to return to the National Museum of Korean Contemporary History. The Korean people had to overcome a few instances of democratic backsliding before a range of constitutional protections were put in place. I believe what we are already seeing in this constitutional crisis suggests that the National Assembly will be able to enforce its powers under Article 77. Common values and support for democracy have been touchstones regularly raised when I have interacted with the South Korean military and related civilian or industry officials, which is a highly professional force.

I think that South Korean democracy will stand resilient in the face of this crisis, but this must be an immensely trying time for friends and colleagues in Korea. My thoughts are with you and your country. South Korea has a history to be proud of, not just the amazing economic development but for having built up a robust democratic political system despite the real and ongoing security threats from the North. I’ll be watching this closely, and please know that regardless of party, you are all in my thoughts and those working to uphold the South Korean constitution and our shared democratic values have my full support.

[Update: Coalition of media organization statement calling on President Yoon to resign. Good historical rundown from James Palmer in Foreign Policy.]


Count the votes and look to the democracies of Northeast Asia for victory against COVID19

I went to bed around 1 am last night, at which point it had been clear for a few hours that we would not have a result on election night. Biden already has a commanding popular vote lead but key battleground states are still counting votes and some places, such as Nevada, are already announcing we have to wait until Thursday for results. So be it, thankfully we seem to have avoided some of the worst fears of election day disruptions and while other developed democracies have made investments to count quickly, our forebearers had to wait much longer and accuracy matters more than speed. Trump’s attempt to disregard votes postmarked or otherwise cast by election day and his lies about our system is a disgraceful, but not surprising attempt, to steal the election. Delivering an accurate count of how citizens voted is a foundational requirement for a democracy and I have no intention of accepting systematic attempts to undermine the legitimacy of my nation’s vote.

Abiding by my own maxim for patience, I’ll largely avoid further commentary here with one critical exception. I find quite alienating the extent to which many my fellow American have accept that the U.S. has led the world in Covid19 related deaths and had a consistently high death rate, both of which a competent administration could have avoided (the extent of deaths that could have been straightforwardly avoided is debatable, I have seen estimates from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands). Many of those people were in vulnerable populations and may have been killed by complications rather direct symptoms of the virus, but reporting on excess deaths clearly shows how many more are dying that were a pandemic not raging out of control would be alive. Many countermeasures are painful and costly and it is no surprise that they prove controversial, but Mr. Trump’s failure to fund testing programs and send a clear signal on masks and other lower cost safety measures  has meant unnecessary sacrifice of the lives of the people in this country and an acceptance of defeat that I would have thought would have been anathema to my fellow citizens.

In the bigger picture, the relapse in parts of western Europe do show that merely competent is not enough. I have seen columnist I respect give in to grim conclusions as to our options but aspiring to be Germany and not France is not our only alternative.  The Republic of Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have all shown that better results are possible in democratic nations closer to the outbreak. I am most familiar with the response in South Korea, having recently supported a binational conference that looked at the strategic implications of scientific innovation. How have they gotten things so right? Because they’ve been through prior pandemics, including working with us with us to prepare for future one, and they put that learning into practice:

“South Koreans don’t comply with invasive contact tracing because they are Asian, they comply with it because they have been through pandemics before and they understand the severity of the danger,” said Jenny Town, a fellow at the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan policy research organization.

I am no public health expert, but a similar dynamic holds in an area near and dear to my heart, mass transit construction costs. South Korea tunneling sets a global standard, and having had the chance to personally ride lines in Seoul and Busan, I’ve been impressed by both the quality and the the extent of coverage.  My fellow Americans, we have a choice between continuing to think we’re the best in many areas or in actually looking around the world and seeing cases where others do better and learn from them. I am deeply ashamed by the deaths we have accepted of our neighbors. The problems we face are hard, contexts vary, and no one country or political agenda is going to get it all right. We need to experiment and learn from others experiments. But we should be angrier about the ineptitude of our pandemic response and we should channel that anger not into cynicism but to innovation and saving lives.


Ballot Questions (No on B&D for Montgomery)

My mail in ballot arrived last week, which means my post on local election stuff is overdue.

First off, if you want more information check out the League of Women Voter’s guide at vote411.org for arguments for and against each questions and as well as candidate survey responses. And now that I’ve pointed you a source for complete information, here are my recommendations:

Montgomery County:

There are four ballot questions, two on property taxes, two on council size. In both cases, Montgomery County’s long time tax-revolter Robin Ficker is again seeking to hamstring the ability of our county legislative branch, the County Council, to govern effectively. Thankfully, we’re still a county where leaders from both parties, the Democratic former County Executive Ike Leggett and Republican former Congresswoman Connie Morella, can still come together to defeat bad ideas.

For a detailed case against those amendments, I turn to Bruce Adams, who knows the history of our how local council and tax rules developed and makes an eminently practical case against Ballot Questions B and D.

Here’s my short take on each amendment.

Ballot Question A would shift the property tax cap from being set in dollar terms to being in percentage terms. If the County is growing and prospering, we need the ability to budget to keep up with rising infrastructure demands. [There are some provisions for new development, under the current law but I think rates are still a much more sensible way to govern things.] I favor question A.

I’ll turn to Bruce to explain why I oppose question B:

Ficker’s Question B would create an inflexible tax cap that would not allow county leaders to respond to real crises like COVID-19 and dramatically changing circumstances. The existing charter allows the county council to exceed the property tax cap only with a unanimous vote. Ficker’s amendment would not let even a unanimous council act to preserve our quality schools and services.

Ballot Question C would increase the number of district council seats by 2, leaving the Council with seven district and four at large members. I think this will have some challenging interactions with unanimity rules, but ultimately it is a reasonable ask from those upcounty who feel underrepresented. No endorsement, but I’ll personally be voting for it.

Ballot Question D would get rid of the county’s at large representatives, switching entirely to districts. I’d oppose question D because I think it undercuts our ability to face problems together as a county and it reduces the number of Councilmembers accountable to you. If you’ve ever called in to a politicians office at most any level, one of the key pieces of advice you’ll get is to tell them where you live, because unless you’re from their district, it’s not their job to care. There are a lot of ways that the at-large seats could be improved, for example by adding ranked choice or proportional voting. However, this is a step in the wrong direction.

Maryland:

Question 1 is about the state budget process and would give the General Assembly additional authority. As a general rule, the General Assembly can now make reductions in the Governor’s budget, but cannot move money around or make increases except in special circumstances. Under question 1, the General Assembly would be able to move funds, so long as the overall budget is balanced and does not exceed the total for the Governor’s budget. I support Question 1 as Maryland has the weakest legislature in the country when it comes budget matters. The Governor would still have a line item veto, so the Maryland Governorship would still remain a powerful office thereafter.

Question 2 expands commercial gaming to allow sports betting with hopes of raising $20 million a year for education.  Eh, I’m dubious, I’ll probably vote against.


Resources for the 2018 Montgomery Primary

I’m happy to do my best to help friends find candidates, including different candidates than my favorites. I’m primarily focusing on my home county of Montgomery, though many of the resources work for other parts of Maryland or even D.C. Montgomery County is presently providing a case study for why we need ranked choice voting or other systematic reforms, as is many of the victors are likely to have below 30% of the vote.  Nonetheless, local elections, even in large counties like Montgomery, are a great chance to make your vote count.

[Update with Greg’s recommendations:

Mini-ad: If you’re reading this before Saturday June 6th, please consider stopping by our humble abode sometime between 6 and 8 pm for a meet and greet for Hans Riemer, the one incumbent county council candidate, for a chance to ask about your concerns, hear his goals, and dine on wine, cheese, and other refreshments.

Non-partisan and Journalists

  • Vote411.org for candidate answers to topical questionnaires, as provided to the League of Women Voters.
  • Bethesda Beat Election Guide, Their Primary landing page has links to Q&As for all the major races,
  • Maryland Matters on the County at Large race. They aren’t don’t have as good of a one-stop-shop for other races, but they’re a good new source of local news.
  • The Washington Post goes to some details on the candidates for governor (Vignarajh, Madaleno, Baker, Jealous, Ervin published upon the writing of this post).

Endorsements by Transit-Oriented Groups

Other Endorsements

Helpfully, Bethesda Beat is reporting who on the range of endorsements received for County Executive/Council/School Board and Congress/General Assembly. This can be useful both for finding your favorite group, or just seeing which candidates have enough support to be serious contenders if you wish to be strategic with your vote.


Montgomery County Council Picks

For those that haven’t early voted:

County Council At-Large

This is where I begin to really feel spoiled for choice. There are five candidates that between ACT (all 5 got perfect scores), Greater Greater Washington (Hans, Danielle, and Will with secondary support for Evan and Jill), and the Sierra Club (Evan, Will, Danielle, and Hans).

20180616_194151Hans Riemer is the only incumbent and I think his record can be shown in a variety of the successful initiatives to make our communities more walkable and safe for biking. Beyond his vital support for the Purple Line, he’s championed initiatives like the  expanded county earned income tax credit and improving transparency and efficiency of county administration. For beer fans, he’s also reformed our liquor laws to allow for the now booming local craft beer industry.

Evan Glass has long been a leader in our community. One of the political causes you’re more likely to know him from is his time as a  board member for Equality Maryland. He’s also been a Producer on CNN and is the executive director of the Gandhi Brigade Youth Media, which gives some of the young people of our community the chance to gain skills and learn to be reporters or advocates. We saw one of their films a couple months back and it was really well done. Finally, he’s vice chair of Montgomery Housing Partnership and takes the affordable housing issue very seriously. He would also be the first openly gay person to serve on the Council.

Danielle Meitiv I met through an elementary school friend, but also her environmental advocacy, including Purple Line support. You may also know her for her fight for parent’s ability to trust their kids to show independence and self-reliance

Two that I haven’t had the chance to get to know, but friends praise:

Will Jawando’s special strength, according to a dear friend and transit advocate, is to bring a range of communities together. His lit emphasizes widespread economic opportunity, through mechanisms like smart growth, support for child card, and counter harassment measures. He and Hans are both on the teachers’ Apple Ballot.

Jill Ortman Fouse is coming with experience from the Board of Education. Aside from a brief Silver Spring encounter I haven’t had the chance to chat with her, but a friend praised her tenure on the Board of Education for being “evidence-based and transparent” and “100% for making sure all kids in MoCo succeed.”

I’ve had the chance to have good discussions with a few other candidates who were all on the GGW shortlist but not in the top 5.

Chris Willheim (+++ from ACT), I met at a friend’s meet and greet a few months back and he was conversant in a wide range of issues. He has experience as a legislative staffer and a teacher, the latter of which was particularly important to many of his ideas and reflected in his Apple Ballot endorsement.

Seth Grimes (++++/- from ACT) I’ve had the chance to speak with on the Metro and at ACT repeatedly. He has experience as Takoma County Councilmember and I found him quite conversant on the issues.

I had the chance to speak with Bill Conway (+/- from ACT) about the Purple Line when he attended an Action Committee for Transit meeting. He has experience as a Senate staffer and environmental lawyer and was conversant on the issues and supportive.

I spoke briefly with  Gabe Albornoz (+/- from ACT) at the Silver Spring Metro one morning. I was pleased by his statements in support of the Purple Line and that we need to address the housing supply problem. His Recreation Department experience is also valuable.

District 5

Tom Hucker is the incumbent and his strongest challenger is running against bus rapid transit on 29. I’m certainly a bit biased since marrying into a Howard County family and having had an apartment in White Oak some years back, but I think that’s an important project both for today’s component and the eventual connections to Howard County, which includes connections to Columbia as part of its long term masterplan.


Resources for the 2018 Montgomery Primary

I’m happy to do my best to help friends find candidates, including different candidates than my favorites. I’m primarily focusing on my home county of Montgomery, though many of the resources work for other parts of Maryland or even D.C. Montgomery County is presently providing a case study for why we need ranked choice voting or other systematic reforms, as is many of the victors are likely to have below 30% of the vote.  Nonetheless, local elections, even in large counties like Montgomery, are a great chance to make your vote count.

Mini-ad: If you’re reading this before Saturday June 6th, please consider stopping by our humble abode sometime between 6 and 8 pm for a meet and greet for Hans Riemer, the one incumbent county council candidate, for a chance to ask about your concerns, hear his goals, and dine on wine, cheese, and other refreshments.

Non-partisan and Journalists

  • Vote411.org for candidate answers to topical questionnaires, as provided to the League of Women Voters.
  • Bethesda Beat Election Guide, Their Primary landing page has links to Q&As for all the major races,
  • Maryland Matters on the County at Large race. They aren’t don’t have as good of a one-stop-shop for other races, but they’re a good new source of local news.
  • The Washington Post goes to some details on the candidates for governor (Vignarajh, Madaleno, Baker, Jealous, Ervin published upon the writing of this post).

Endorsements by Transit-Oriented Groups

Other Endorsements

Helpfully, Bethesda Beat is reporting who on the range of endorsements received for County Executive/Council/School Board and Congress/General Assembly. This can be useful both for finding your favorite group, or just seeing which candidates have enough support to be serious contenders if you wish to be strategic with your vote.


All I Want for Christmas Is the Purple Line

The news earlier this month was not promising for the Purple Line. Incoming Gov. Hogan is skeptical of mass transit, favoring road projects. As David Albert discussed months ago, the governor of Maryland does have significant budgetary powers and could substantially stymie the project, albeit at the cost of federal matching funds. However, in the season of hope, there are reasons not to despair. Since the election, we've seen three important signals as to why the project is still alive and why the Governor-Elect may consider funding it:

The Governor-Elect has said he will make decisions about the Purple Line after his inauguration, likely within the next month or so. This coming period is a great time to let the transition team ([email protected]) know that you support the Purple Line. Purple Line Now has a sample letter up as well as links to a variety of facts about regarding the economic benefits of transit and the importance of our region. Emails from parts of Maryland other than Montgomery and Prince George's Counties are particularly valuable, so if that's where you live, be sure to mention that. Otherwise, this is a mass drive: the most important thing is to write polite supportive notes and to click send rather getting stuck on polishing. The emails we send won't by themselves carry the day, but they will show the firm popular foundation underlying the economic case.


Marylanders: The fate of the Purple Line does ride on tomorrow's election

I hope all U.S. citizens vote tomorrow. I recommend Vote411.org as a way to help you get information about your polling place and learn the candidates' stands on the issues.

One race particularly important to me this year is Maryland's gubernatorial election where Lt. Gov. Brown (D) faces off against Larry Hogan (R).

Hogan is explicitly an enemy of the Purple Line:

Hogan says he would put a far greater priority on building and repairing roads than on mass transit. He pledges to block two major light-rail projects: the Purple Line in the Washington suburbs and the Red Line in Baltimore.

Hogan's emphasis on new roads ultimately does not make sense. Vehicle Miles Traveled are down across the country. Infrastructure repair is important and specific projects might be worthwhile, but Hogan is pursuing road building as a culture war issue rather than an governing agenda for Maryland that actually makes sense.

By comparison, the Purple Line and Red Line are near ready for construction start.  The economic benefits are immense, especially at a time where the construction market has yet to fully recover and interest rates are low:

  • 69,300 daily riders.
  • $3 in economic returns anticipated for every $1 invested.
  • 17,000 cars off the roads in the Montgomery and Prince George's Counties.
  • Completion of the Capital Crescent trail.
  • 2,380 to 4,140 new jobs for every $100 million of cost.

The Maryland governor is entirely capable of putting a project like this on hold. For those of you Marylanders will not directly benefit from the transit, this is still an investment in the state's long term future. Much of the funding comes from the federal government, with $800 million in federal matching funds to help build it. The economic activity generated will support the state's tax base and among other things help keep tuition low at Maryland's university system, a particularly remarkable accomplishment of the O'Malley-Brown administration when much of the country was experiencing jumps in public school costs. The Lt. Governor has taken his hits, rightfully, on the healthcare website debut. That ship has been righted, but for those with ongoing concerns about implementation I'd point to his own Lt. Gov. candidate, Howard County's Ken Ulman. As a present resident of Howard, I've got to say I've been consistently impressed by our young executive. I hope he has the chance to serve the state as a whole as well as he's served Howard County.

In closing, I certainly confess to being a partisan Democrat. But I'm also a proud Marylander. I think our state has managed great things in these past eight years, even when the national situation had headwinds against us. I'm asking Marylanders to vote for the Lt. Gov. because he'll build on the successes of the O'Malley administration and not undercut our economic future to fight culture war battles over infrastructure. I know this election can feel like there's not much as stake, but when it comes to the Purple Line, the opposite is true.

Speaking for myself and not my employer. Similarly, I'm not speaking for any non-profits I volunteer for. That said, Kate does back with me!


I am still unconvinced by the argument for direct U.S. intervention in Syria

As ever, speaking for myself and not my employer.

The New York Times editorial board and Kevin Drum do a good job of laying out the case that the President should seek Congress's approval before going to war in Syria.

In the end, aren't the president's personal convictions all that prevent any military operation from escalating?

It's a fair point, and I'm glad he brought it up. The answer, I think, lies in congressional approval for military action, and this is one of the reasons I think it's so important. If Obama is truly serious about not sending combat troops into ISIS-held areas in Iraq, then let's get a congressional resolution that puts that in writing. Let's get an authorization for war that spells out a geographical area; puts a limit on US troop deployments; and specifically defines what those troops can do.

Would this be airtight? Of course not... But nothing is airtight—nor should it be. It's always possible that events on the ground really will justify stronger action someday. However, what it does do is simple: It forces the president to explicitly request an escalation and it forces Congress to explicitly authorize his request. At the very least, that prevents a slow, stealthy escalation that flies under the radar of public opinion.

Presidents don't like having their actions constrained. No one does. But in most walks of life that deal with power and the use of force, we understand that constraint is important. Surely, then, there's nowhere it's more important than in matters of war and peace. And that's one of the reasons that congressional authorization for war is so essential.

ISIS did heinously execute two Americans that were already in Syria, and they should be punished for that. However, as Zack Beauchamp pointed out, the President implicitly noted that they are not a significant threat to the United States and there is no immediate crisis preventing getting congressional authorization. Syria continues to be an extremely challenging foreign policy problem and as Marc Lynch summarizes, the political science research on the civil wars does not support the idea that we could have just fixed it by intervening to a greater extent:

Would the United States providing more arms to the FSA have accomplished these goals? The academic literature is not encouraging. In general, external support for rebels almost always make wars longer, bloodier and harder to resolve (for more on this, see the proceedings of this Project on Middle East Political Science symposium in the free PDF download). Worse, as the University of Maryland’s David Cunningham has shown, Syria had most of the characteristics of the type of civil war in which external support for rebels is least effective. The University of Colorado’s Aysegul Aydin and Binghamton University’s Patrick Regan have suggested that external support for a rebel group could help when all the external powers backing a rebel group are on the same page and effectively cooperate in directing resources to a common end. Unfortunately, Syria was never that type of civil war.

So put me in the skeptic camp on the benefits of striking Syria. I was less skeptical with the war in Libya, but I take the same position now as I did then: if the President thinks this is a good idea, then take it to Congress. It's in the Constitution for a good reason and there aren't any circumstances that prevent it. Were I in Congress, I'd be inclined to vote no absent notable constraints. However, I'm in the minority there apparently, so what's the harm in asking?


I know what all the fighting is for

HealthCare.GovAt long last, after years of vitriolic opposition, America is finally joining the ranks of the other developed nations and offering a rudimentary form of universal health care to her citizens. While there’s sure to be some rollout technical glitches and such, HealthCare.Gov, the site for those without employer plans to comparison shop for healthcare insurance and see what subsidies are available, is now online. [The plans, start on January 1, 2014, so most people will probably wait until December, but consumers can start checking them out now.]

So between now and the 2014 elections, the public will get a chance to try  out the Affordable Care Act and see if they like it. If they do, then universality will be the foundation for our healthcare system. If they don’t, then Democrats will lose big, as we should. A minority of House Republicans, with the backing of the Speaker, are utterly desperate to prevent the public from seeing the benefits of a law that has already passed. That is what the government shutdown fight is about and what the debt ceiling fight is about.

Kevin Drum puts it best:

The Republican Party is bending its entire will, staking its very soul, fighting to its last breath, in service of a crusade to....

Make sure that the working poor don't have access to affordable health care. I just thought I'd mention that in plain language, since it seems to get lost in the fog fairly often. But that's it. That's what's happening. They have been driven mad by the thought that rich people will see their taxes go up slightly in order to help non-rich people get decent access to medical care.

But they are failing. We held the line. Now we just have to minimize the damage that their sabotage will do to the nation.

As ever, speaking for myself, and not the employer. Title from a catchy Ari DeFranco song that Monica introduced me to. [It isn’t actually that appropriate to this crisis, but I like the song. I’ve also fixed a few typos(with Kate’s help) after posting.]


Halt our aid to Egypt

Cutting off aid is mandated by law after a coup. As a general principle, I’m not fond of the executive branch overriding or evading constitutional laws. Nonetheless, I think the administration’s buying time by not making a declaration may have been forgivable if the Egyptian government took the deal that the U.S. and partner nations mediated with the Muslim Brotherhood.

But efforts to prevent the crackdown failed. Jay Ulfelder puts it in quantitative perspective:

According to a story in this morning’s New York Times, the crackdown that began a few days ago “so far has killed more than 1,000 protesters.”

This puts Egypt in rare and sullied company. Since World War II, the world has only seen onsets of about 110 of these episodes, and fewer than a handful of those onsets occurred after 2000: in Sudan in 2003 (Darfur) and again in 2011 (South Kordofan);  in Sri Lanka in 2009; and in Syria since 2011.

Thus, I think we should obey the law and cut off non-democracy building aid to Egypt (which is the vast majority of our aid; even our non-military aid is mostly economic). We need not oppose their attempts to gain IMF aid nor seek sanctions against them, but unless and until the distant prospect of a genuine civilian democratic rights-respecting government emerges we must cut them off as a client.

The expert I trust most on these issues is  Marc Lynch, although I recommend the Arabist for a great collection of regional reactions on Middle East issues, with the note that I will regularly disagree with some of the sources they pull in but it’s important to be aware of opinions you disagree with. Lynch also has his own round up over on Foreign Policy. Now that I’ve laid out my sources, I feel I can safely endorse Lynch’s pessimistic read of the effects of cutting of aid:

These steps won't matter very much in the short term. Cairo has made it very clear that it doesn't care what Washington thinks and the Gulf states will happily replace whatever cash stops flowing from U.S. coffers. Anti-American incitement will continue, along with the state of emergency, violence and polarization, the stripping away of the fig leaf of civilian government, and the disaster brewing in the Sinai. It won't affect Secretary of State John Kerry's Israel-Palestine peace talks and the Camp David accords will be fine, too; Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi can't manage his own streets, and it's unlikely he wants to mess with Israel right now.

The hard truth is that the United States has no real influence to lose right now anyway, and immediate impact isn't the point. Taking a (much belated) stand is the only way for the United States to regain any credibility -- with Cairo, with the region, and with its own tattered democratic rhetoric.

The benefits may go beyond a slow start on restoring credibility, based on my past research on Egyptian aid. Past research by Steven Finkel for the U.S. Agency for International Development (PDF) found that democracy aid can be effective, but tends to be undermined in countries where the majority of aid goes to the military. That result is probably over-determined, but I’ve got one hypothesis I hope to explore in future work: namely that military aid is not apolitical in countries with weak civilian control of the military and in which the military is a major economic actor. Egypt certainly fits that bill on both fronts. While I don’t see them allowing real U.S. democracy building aid again anytime soon, we should stop giving the military an edge against other actors. Should we restore aid at some point in the future, the current approach to Pakistan where assistance is not funneled through the military may be a helpful model. Of course, if we move away from military assistance, that may hurt U.S. arms exports, but I think that’s a correct prioritization.

Finally, on a personal note, I suspect many of the people I met in Egypt, particularly the Coptics, victims in their own right, are now backing the crackdown. Even in those heady post-revolution days when we visited, the military was often above criticism. Moreover, while the Morsi presidency was actively sabotaged on political and economic fronts, his party worked hard to alienate and disempower everyone outside their immediate coalition. However, the coup was ill-advised because wide-spread violence was a predictable - and predicted - effect. With hope for reconciliation off the table and the U.S. distrusted on all sides, we are not in a position to make a positive impact, but we can start by not being complicit in a bloody mistake.

As ever, speaking for myself and not my employer.


Review: Twilight of the Elites by Chris Hayes

The book has already been ably summarized by Aaron Swartz over at Crooked Timber (worth reading the whole thing):

Our nation’s institutions have crumbled, Hayes argues. From 2000–2010 (the “Fail Decade”), every major societal institution failed…

Hayes pins the blame on an unlikely suspect: meritocracy. We thought we would just simply pick out the best and raise them to the top, but once they got there they inevitably used their privilege to entrench themselves and their kids (inequality is, Hayes says, “autocatalytic”). Opening up the elite to more efficient competition didn’t make things more fair, it just legitimated a more intense scramble. The result was an arms race among the elite, pushing all of them to embrace the most unscrupulous forms of cheating and fraud to secure their coveted positions. As competition takes over at the high end, personal worth resolves into exchange value, and the elite power accumulated in one sector can be traded for elite power in another: a regulator can become a bank VP, a modern TV host can use their stardom to become a bestselling author (try to imagine Edward R. Murrow using the nightly news to flog his books the way Bill O’Reilly does). This creates a unitary elite, detached from the bulk of society, yet at the same time even more insecure. You can never reach the pinnacle of the elite in this new world; even if you have the most successful TV show, are you also making blockbuster movies? bestselling books? winning Nobel Prizes? When your peers are the elite at large, you can never clearly best them.

The result is that our elites are trapped in a bubble, where the usual pointers toward accuracy (unanimity, proximity, good faith) only lead them astray. And their distance from the way the rest of the country really lives makes it impossible for them to do their jobs justly—they just don’t get the necessary feedback. The only cure is to reduce economic inequality, a view that has surprising support among the population (clear majorities want to close the deficit by raising taxes on the rich, which is more than can be said for any other plan). And while Hayes is not a fan of heightening the contradictions, it is possible that the next crisis will bring with it the opportunity to win this change.

My favorite points:

Meritocracy and Equality of Opportunity do not deserve the moral weight we give them:

Hayes draws on Robert Michel's iron law of oligarchy as an inspiration for his theory as to  why meritocracy fails:

"The Iron Law of Meritocracy states that eventually the inequality produced by a meritocratic system will grow large enough to subvert the mechanisms of mobility. Unequal outcomes make equal opportunity impossible. The Principle of Difference will come to overwhelm the Principle of Mobility. Those who are able to climb up the ladder will find ways to pull it up after them, or to selectively lower it down to allow their friends, allies, and kin to scramble up. In other words: 'Whoever says meritocracy says oligarchy.'" p. 57.

In comments, people often say that the American system is not genuinely meritocratic. I put as much weight on that as those that say the Soviet Union wasn't really communist.

Meritocracy gives the education system an impossible task:

Freddie DeBoer further develops the interaction of meritocracy and education (note that I disagree with his conclusion in the piece on the grounds of practicality and desirability):

Because our system now depends on the idea that children are universally capable of being educated to certain necessary levels to benefit our economy. Globalization and neoliberalism — the basic economic consensus of policy elites — destroyed working-class jobs and incomes and sparked a furious attack on labor’s ability to unionize and collectively bargain for better conditions. Yet the neoliberal policy apparatus still needs a mechanism to improve wages for those at the bottom, in part to improve their living conditions and in part because the economy requires them to be consumers as well as producers. Having cut the legs out from underneath the traditional mechanisms of social mobility for uneducated Americans, the necessary step becomes plain: educate all of them. Questions about whether everyone can be educated to the necessary level cannot be countenanced, to say nothing of whether this system breeds zero-sum competition for limited “skilled” jobs.

Our vexed arguments about education reform stem from our refusal to acknowledge that we are constrained by reality, regardless of the needs of our economic system.

Matt Yglesias regularly notes the incongruity of teachers arguing that students' socioeconomic traits are the main factors determining their success. However, that is not primarily an argument that teachers don't matter; it is just an explanation as to why even good teachers cannot boost up their students sufficiently that education can get the median wage going again. Good teachers might be a jet engine lifting up students, but that doesn't mean they have the power to get them into orbit. This does not mean that money spent getting better teachers is wasted. I believe the marginal returns on education to be quite high; it just means that even valuable education reforms won't do for workers what strong unions once managed. I do think that DeBoer overstates the "zero-sum" nature of competition for skilled jobs. There are a fair number of skills still in fairly great demand that may not be able to replace the unskilled work of yesteryear, but are still at a point where adding a worker increases the demand for other workers. However, there are also fields like law, where the education system at large is rooking people into accumulating great debt for often dubious job prospects. I think that situation has persisted as long as it has because LSAT-ing your way to success is entirely in line with the myths of meritocracy.

Look for fraud, not bubbles:

Eager to avoid repeating their mistakes, many pundits constantly ponder whether this or that is the next bubble. Chris Hayes shows that why this is mistaken. The problem with the housing boom wasn't excessive enthusiasm, it was widespread fraud. The basis of the problem has been understood for centuries:

Thomas Gresham: "In this wild, unregulated monetary world, you had two different type of coins floating in circulation: "good" money, which was pure and properly weighted, and "bad" money, which was debased and did not contain the amount of it purported to contain. In such a situation people got pretty good at identifying what was good money and what was bad;  what they'd do was use bad money for exchange while having the good money. Eventually bad money became the only money in circulation… fraudulent actors drive out the honest if fraudulent actors receive no sanction for their action." p. 92-93

Hayes also notes this pattern in the steroid scandal in Enron, Major League Baseball and cheating under Michelle Rhee's education reforms in Washington D.C. (He contrasts that with Chicago where Steven Levitt was hired to monitor for cheating and managed to prevent widespread scandals.) Hayes cites William Black's description of these cases as "Criminogenic environments" where corruption became endemic. To me, the connection to bubbles is obvious, as providing an easy path to success feeds on itself and in business or financial sectors may redirect resources from legitimate enterprises.

The term Fractal Inequality:

It's a lovely term that updates what Lewis Carroll called the inner ring phenomenon. Status competition is like an onion: as you manage to break into one layer there's always another inner ring. What's changed in my view is globalization: elites now compare themselves to others at events like the World Economic Forum at Davos, not just those in the same town, state, or even country.

The book left me with three questions:

How important was globalization to this phenomenon? I think there is a cosmopolitan global elite in a way there really wasn't in prior eras. But even if I'm right, how big of a driver of inequality is this phenomenon? Similarly, what's the relationship between trade and inequality, and can trade deals be fashioned such that all the gains don't accrue to the top?

Do civil service barriers help? In the think tank where I work, the difficulty of corporate-government cooperation and of hiring government workers from the outside is regularly decried. This may lead to you correctly pegging most think tank as meritocratic (note: I'm speaking for myself here as always on this blog). But this leaves me curious: to what extent do civil service rules actually manage to put a break on the emergence of a meritocratic elite? Or have they been made obsolete by a churn of employees departing for better-paying corporate work and an increased reliance on contractors?

How does our present situation compare to pre-WWII history? I'd take meritocracy, with all its faults, over aristocracy in a heartbeat, although I suppose there's something to be said for competing sets of elites. Hayes does note that the meritocracy manages greater diversity than older forms of elite governance, but I'd be interested in a bit more history which might reveal to what extent the vaunted American 1950s were a postwar aberration or a phenomenon that had been replicated in other times and places.


Marylanders: Please tell Senator Cardin not to back down on stopping filibuster abuse

Update: The Baltimore office at least was closed on Thursday 1/3 but will be open tomorrow 1/4. The vote will be on [1/22], post-inauguration, although calling sooner is still probably better.

Senator Cardin apparently may be part of a bipartisan group opposing bringing democracy and effectiveness to the U.S Senate. In doing so, he risks blowing our one opportunity for the next two years to make progress. I had the alarm raised for me via email, but the story checks out according to Ben German of `the Hill:

A bipartisan group is offering Senate leaders a political compromise on filibuster reform as Democrats push to change rules that frequently require 60 votes to pass bills.

The group met Friday morning in the office of Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), the Senate’s No. 2 Republican, and plans to present its idea to the separate caucuses later in the day…

Lawmakers involved in the ad-hoc group, in addition to Kyl, Alexander and Cardin, include Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and, according to The Huffington Post, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.).

The filibuster as presently constituted does not work with European style parliamentary politics and as a result the Senate can't get anything done. The alternative to an effective legislature is not some panacea of democracy: it is the accrual of power to the executive branch. This is true whether the President is Republican or Democrat.

The Progressive Change Campaign Committee is leading up a call drive to push for real reform; if you follow this link, they'll get you the phone numbers and information you need.

In summary, I'll hand the floor to Ezra Klein:

[The McCain proposal] is filibuster reform for people who don’t want to reform the filibuster.

In other words, it wouldn’t do much of anything. Unlike Sen. Tom Harkin’sreform proposal, it wouldn’t change the number of votes needed to break a filibuster. Unlike Sen. Jeff Merkley’s reform proposal, it wouldn’t require the minority to actually hold the floor and talk. And perhaps most importantly, it wouldn’t use “the constitutional option,” thus protecting the precedent that changing Senate rules requires a two-thirds vote rather than a simple majority.

If you think the Senate is pretty much working well as is, and the biggest threat are the folks who want to change the rules, then this is the proposal for you. It lets people say they’re doing something to curb the abuse of the filibuster without actually doing anything at all. But if you think the Senate is broken, there’s nothing in here that would even plausibly fix any of its problems.

If you care about this issue, please call soon.


The line holds and the ceremony of innocence lives another day

The Surpreme Court  decision on universal health care was a frightening near thing. Four justices voted to find the entire Affordable Care Act unconstitutional and appear to be preparing a judicial assault against the New Deal. Chief Justice Roberts decision stepped us back from the brink of a Supreme Court legitimacy crisis, a change made perhaps at the last minute, although still a decision that will complicate future efforts to improve national programs that are implemented through the states.

The battle now proceeds to the election. This will be a hard one, thanks to difficult worldwide conditions and successful obstructionism by Republicans in Congress since the beginning of the crisis, economic recovery is slow in coming. As Dan Drezner notes, the U.S. is performing above par internationally, but the average American voter doesn't grade on a curve. I have no special insight into how to win that election so instead I"ll look at the topic of how did we win this round?

To answer that question, I turn to Will Wilkerson, a libertarian with liberal sympathies, who seems scornful of the win in a way that strikes me as informative:

Mr Roberts observed the livid reaction to Citizens United, as well as the liberal freak-out over the mere possibility of a ruling striking down Obamacare, and determined that prudent custodianship of the court called for a light, conciliatory touch. Indeed, my hunch (and none shall doubt my amazing intuition!) is that Mr Roberts may well have chosen to join his conservative colleagues had the court not lost so much public goodwill following the Citizens United decision…

Thus, all that was required to avert a looming "crisis of legitimacy" was to uphold Obamacare, for whatever reason, and Mr Roberts seemed to have known it. Mr Chait and his partisan allies clearly dislike the way in which Mr Roberts avoided the "crisis" of their collective tantrum, but the great relief that has now washed over them will be enough to keep them from attacking with full force the "bizarre and implausibly narrow reading" of the commerce clause which Mr Roberts just embedded more firmly in constitutional law.

This is a tradeoff I will gladly take. Achieving universal healthcare is no mere battle in building a more humane, it is the war. As Kevin Drum argues, the distinction between activity and inactivity never came up before and is unlikely to come up again. The practical result is that we will have to call things taxes in the future, scary I know, but the present Democratic party aversion to ever using taxes is on any but the top 1% was already unsustainable. We may yet lose the election, but Roberts had the votes to end it here and now via what James Fallows called a slow motion coup and he choose not to. We are a better country for that and we are a better country because liberal politicians and pundits were taking Michael Tomasky's fine advice and preparing to come out swinging. As Wilkerson notes, this wasn't a one off preparation either, the vehement reaction against Citizens United may not be enough to  overcome the effect of big  money donors but it did better prepare us  for this fight.

In some ways, this recalls the bully  pulpit strategy of presidential leadership: appeal to the public to move popular opinion and pressure members of the legislature. Political science has not found support for that idea. However, in part because supporters are defending an existing law rather than trying to institute change via the court, vehement arguments seem to have helped win the day. I'll keep an eye out for any further research on this matter, as I expect the minority mentioned above will be back for future attempts to roll back the welfare state.

Usual caveat: Speaking for myself, not my employer.


Reminder: Maryland primary elections are today

If you would like to see candidates responses to questionnaires about key issues in the race check out Vote411.org. There's no endorsement and no fact checking or the like, but for many of the minor races this is one of the easiest ways to see all the candidates on one page.

As a reminder, Maryland runs closed primary elections, so you will only have a chance to select candidates for whatever party you are registered with. However, independents and third party members can still vote for nonpartisan elections, like school board.

Unlike the League of Women Voters, I do endorsements. However, a lot of local races relevant to transportation aren't in play this year, so I'll just endorse Sen. Cardin. He's done a fairly good job and his main challenger isn't especially liberal, at least on social issues.


Practical impact of the Egyptian revolution [on a farmer] 2011-04-18

IMG_5385Being in country for only a few weeks, let alone on a tourist trip, is regularly disparaged as a means of gaining in country knowledge. However, while hardly science, it still is a means of augmenting knowledge about a country. In this case, Overseas Adventure Travel includes a few interviews with admittedly a rather biased sample: a farmer in Luxor, a dinner with an Arab family in east Aswan, and a visit with a Nubian family in west Aswan.

IMG_9290Our talk with a middle class farmer was quite illuminating, his English was excellent and based on the answers he gave to our group he seemed both willing to speak honestly about his life and wise enough to see beyond his immediate situation. Like everyone else we've spoken to on the issue, he strongly favored the revolution. There wasn't much in the way of protests in west Luxor, based on what he said, but citizens did gather downtown to watch the news and cheer on the protesters.

IMG_5412The most immediate impact on their lives is that their farm now has electricity. That was a fairly shocking rate of progress until he explained the reason: the Mubarak government hadn't been extending electricity to parts of west Luxor in hopes that the farmers would move, which would free up more land for development. Based on this anecdotal evidence, it seems as if the difference between west and east Luxor may be the result of political battles rather than special traits of the Nile or a lack of bridges. However, that policy has now been reversed and electricity has reached the farm. This seems to be a fairly straightforward case of popular accountability sweeping away low-benefit unpopular policies. I have no idea what development approach would be best for Luxor in the long term, but I do think the high unemployment rate in Egypt shows the limitation of resort oriented development. In the meantime, I'm glad electricity has arrived to this farm and with it not television, but a washing machine (my mother noted that particularly delivery), which should greatly change how the females of the household spend their busy days.


Passing through Tahrir Square 2011-04-17

IMG_8992_thumbOur trip to the Egyptian Museum took us through Tahrir Square twice, due to confusion about which entrance to use. The boundaries were a bit ambiguous: square is more of a figurative term, it is quite active, and there's multiple entrances. That final attribute and its centrality made it a hard-to-cordon-off gathering place. There were also any number of large buildings bordering the area which provide easy roosts for cameras and snipers.

IMG_9018_thumbHowever, that Sunday, it just seemed to be the  vital center for the city's infrastructure, under construction but not revolutionary. As the news accounts have covered, the big protest day was Friday, which corresponds with Islamic services and, as a result, the main day off in Egypt. The prior week's protest had been preempted by the arrest of Mubarak, and I'm told that later this week the long standing and long hated emergency law was finally lifted. I don't know the status of the remaining political prisoners, since I've actually been catching less Egyptian news here than when I was home, but I suspect this should be a fairly effective sign of progress toward a more stable society.

IMG_9036_thumbThe main exception to a typical city center square was the building that ha been the former home of Mubarak's National Democratic Party which went up in flames after the revolution started. Last I heard, there hasn't been any attribution of responsibility on that one, although the popular theory is that it was self-inflicted to destroy records. I've got no particular insight on that score, but I am rather curious what will happen to the building. It borders the Nile and is visible from the square, an it is obviously on a prime piece of real estate. I suspect whatever happens with the building, it will be a symbol of the larger fortunes of the party. Supposedly, this party has more of a chance in the upcoming elections as they're to be held in only six months.  With the exception of the Muslim Brotherhood, no other group has existing campaign infrastructure. However, that doesn't accord with what I've heard from some of the locals.


Underway to Egypt [2011-04-15/16]

IMG_8880As I write this our Egyptian Air flight is passing south of Barrington en route to Cairo. I'd flown up to JFK, which had a nicer terminal than I expected and an unusual system of check-in desks at terminal four that seemed geared handling large numbers of passengers and easy reassignment of airline slots. As expected, I had to leave and re-enter through security which seems unnecessary but I did enjoy riding the air train between the terminals.

I believe I've managed to pack everything I need, about twenty-five pounds worth in my main bag and fifteen in my backpack, a good portion of that being my laptop. I would have liked to have done a more research on Egypt prior to the trip, although my obsessive following of the recent revolution means I know a reasonable amount about the present situation.

Reading the complimentary copy of the Daily News Egypt does bring home Egypt's status as a country that recently went through a revolution. In the day's news: eight of twenty six governors were fired, former President Mubarak remains detained for questioning despite claims of health issues, the treatment of 35 detained protesters is debated and a range of tycoons and former government leaders find their financial dealings investigated or their ability to leave the country denied. Critically though, it's a state more thrilling than frightening, the future is still unclear but disputes are of critical importance but appear to be handled through political and judicial venues. There's still much to be settled, but there's always something cheering about legal consequences for those once above the law.

While it's doubtless provincial to say so, I'm still impressed by international flights. The Spartan outlook of Southwest, my domestic carrier of choice, means that the TV screens, meals, and excellent features like under-seat outlets still strike me as extraordinary. We got a nice bag of freebies including a practical items like a toothbrush and toothpaste and a sleep mask, the ever popular standby of cheap headphones, and, to my surprise, a set of socks. There's also an under seat Ethernet plug but I have no idea if it's active, I'm told by a friend that I have a shot at wifi on my Lufthansa flight home but for  now I'd say Egyptair has treated me rather well. Now I should probably get some sleep, as at this point it's 4:12 am Cairo time.


This time next week, I'll be on a plane to Egypt

My mother had planned a trip with two friends and a tour company well before the revolution. Egypt's future is still uncertain but the State Department has pulled back its travel warnings and the upcoming battles should be organizing and ballot box focused rather than taking place between protestors and police.

I'm quite excited to be going. I lack the words to express the admiration I feel for what the youth of Egypt have already accomplished by nonviolent means. The trip will be focused on Egypt's ancient history, starting in Cairo, going to Luxor, and then traveling down the Nile. It isn't oriented towards current politics and the State Department advises staying away from demonstrations, but during my guided travels and despite my lack of Arabic skills allows I hope to listen and observe and enhance my meager understanding. My regional interest is East Asia and that's not likely to change, but I've long studied attempts at democratization without ever coming much closer than East Germany a decade later.

Thus if any readers have any advice for my travels, please leave them in comments or send an email (gsanders at zort.net). I'll similarly take postcard requests for those so inclined.


Smart phones and cameras: new best friends?

Rob Pegoraro makes a solid point and makes me hopeful about a trend to the future:

Trying to cram GPS and Web applications into cameras is not a long-term answer. Instead, the camera should learn to talk to the phone, asking it for its location and tossing photos over to the phone for it to share at will.

But aside from one interesting, Android-linked Samsung model debuted at the Consumer Electronics Show in January - where I took more pictures with a smartphone than my own camera - camera manufacturers don't seem to have figured this out.

I'd be really excited by that combination. I've been meaning to do a better job of geotagging my pictures, but I haven't really gotten around to it yet. That said, you might still want an electronic compass in cameras, if the size was right, as you can't get facing from a separate device. The obvious alternative is phone cameras that are good enough to do the job, but from what I've heard the bottleneck is lenses and not megapixels, so Moore's law won't help on that one. This is consistent with my experience with my Droid camera, it can do the job but even my point and shoot canon gets me much better quality consistently.

Now I just need to find an app to do my tagging for me.

On the international relations front, I think the fast upload camera-phone combo could make a big difference, although that may be an area where smart phone cameras are the best bet unless you're a would be photo journalist.


Beyond the point of no return in Egypt

From what I'm reading from a range of sources, mostly Twitter, it sounds as if the security situation has deteriorated in Egypt with many blaming the former security services for the looting. U.S. citizens are being offered evacuation. From David Kirkpatrick and Alan Cowell's reporting for the NY Times, it sounds like a crackdown order is coming:

But the soldiers refused protesters’ pleas to open fire on the security police. And the police battered the protesters with tear gas, shotguns and rubber bullets. Everywhere in Cairo, soldiers and protesters hugged or snapped pictures together on top of military tanks. With the soldiers’ consent, protesters scrawled graffiti denouncing Mr. Mubarak on many of the tanks. “This is the revolution of all the people,” read a common slogan. “No, no, Mubarak” was another.

By Saturday night, informal brigades of mostly young men armed with bats, kitchen knives and other makeshift weapons had taken control, setting up checkpoints around the city.

Some speculated that the sudden withdrawal of the police from the cities — even some museums and embassies in Cairo were left unguarded — was intended to create chaos that could justify a crackdown.

If enough of the Army cooperates, Mubarak could still get control of the situation. However, it would be a discredited regime that emerged from the rubble. We're now seeing an Egyptian population that is willing to stand up and choose its own destiny. I think John Quiggin is right in that we are seeing the end to the Arab exception [which treats Arabic nations as unready for democracy], although the oil rich emirates can probably buy their people off for some time to come. Yglesias highlights the key point (emphasis Yglesias):

The point applies most obviously in relation to oil. The idea that the US can legitimately use its military power to ensure continued access to oil resources rests, in large measure, on the (not entirely unfounded) assumption that those controlling the resources are a bunch of sheikhs and military adventurers who happened to be in the right place, with guns, at the right time. Without the Arab exception, the idea of oil as a special case, not subject to the ordinary assumption that resources are the property of the people in whose country they are found, will also be hard to sustain.

It is time to say that we will not support a regime that engages in a brutal crackdown and that free and fair elections are the only soft landing available. More important, it's time to call in the chips we have with the military to increase the odds that a crackdown order is not obeyed. The removal of the police forces made this a double or nothing situation; martial law without security services will likely prove reminiscent of the Tiananmen square massacre where police forces were similarly inadequate or unavailable.

[Minor grammar edits and a clarification on the term "Arab exception."]


Start reforming the filibuster

In an attempt to repair the broken Senate, Sens. Tom Harkin, Tom Udall, and Jeff Merkley are proposing a package of modest filibuster reforms that could be past by majority vote at the start of the session. Here's Ezra Klein summarizing the details:

But before we get into what might change, let's say what won't change: The 60-vote requirement to break a filibuster won't change. The right to unlimited debate, to speak until your knees buckle and your voice gives out, won't change. In reality, the rights of the minority won't change at all. In some ways, they'll even be increased.

Here's how the filibuster would change: Motions to proceed can't be filibustered because to do so is filibustering the debate itself. Filibusters themselves have to feature continuous debate and discussion. After a filibuster against a nomination is broken, there will be only two hours of post-cloture debate, as opposed to 30 hours, because nominations don't have amendments that need to be debated.

And there are changes to the Senate rules more broadly, too. Holds can no longer be secret, and the minority gets the right to offer at least three germane amendments on every bill (which addresses the Republican complaint that they are often denied the opportunity to offer amendments)

In essence, these would greatly accelerate the business of the Senate. This could make viable strategies such as forcing the other side to do a genuine filibuster as well as free up time towards any number of governing tasks. Put simply, being a legislature for a country of more than 300 million people is hard work and takes time to do right.

Both Klein and Ruth Marcus note that this may just prove to be the first shot in a set of filibuster changes. Marcus tries to spin this into a horror tale. My comments added in brackets:

Imagine the start of the 113th Congress in January 2013. House Speaker John Boehner's first act, once again, is to repeal what he calls "Obamacare." Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, invoking the Udall precedent, moves to change the rules to eliminate the filibuster, and his caucus - over howls from the Democratic minority - agrees. The Republican Senate then votes to repeal the health-care bill, which is promptly signed . . . by President Palin. [This is generally called democracy. Matt Miller can explain more.]

…The filibuster could end up being a useful Democratic tool to block legislation that passes the Republican-controlled House and could, with a few Democratic defections, garner a bare majority in the Senate. [There's this thing called a veto. In addition, rules making is about the long game not the present circumstance.]

…But one little-noticed aspect of the Udall plan is that, as part of eliminating the filibuster on the motion to begin debate, it would guarantee Republicans more opportunity to offer amendments. Sounds fair - except that in practice more amendments translate into more chances to force endangered Democratic senators to take unpleasant votes. In short: more fodder for 30-second campaign ads. [Protecting seats is not a higher priority than implementing good policy. If the Democratic Congress could have done more to improve the economy, that would have swamped the impact of whatever ads the Republicans wanted to run.]

This filibuster fight is about whether we want our country to have a functioning legislative branch again. The new era may be scary but ultimately we have to have confidence in our policies. The last ten years have exposed a broken system, an executive branch that reserves the right to detain off the battlefield without charge, assassinate American citizens, and torture without threat of accountability, and the last two years have shown that it is barely possible to govern this country with a supermajority. As Miller argues, if we do not move towards a majority-rule system now we can see our future in California, budget crisis after budget crisis while no party has the tools necessary to fix things.


20th Anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall

My memories of the fall of the wall, and the people walking and then driving to west Berlin and the like, are not that strong.  Oddly enough, I more clearly remember watching on television the coup against Gorbechev, perhaps because I was in [Wales] at the time.  However, I do remember caring about it and doing reports on it and making aluminum foil dioramas.  My pastor had actually gone to Berlin soon thereafter and gotten me a few pieces of the wall, for which I’m still grateful.  My mom actually had visited the divided city, her stories of riding the subway around and seeing the shuttered East Berlin stops and their exposed lightbulbs and single patrolling guard has always stuck with me.

I’ve had a chance to tour the reunited Berlin and loved the experience.  That said, some of the East Berlin construction has got to be the ugliest architecture I’ve ever seen, and that includes Communist construction in the PRC.

All in all, I find the steady consolidation of Europe to be one of the most inspiring stories in human history, made all the more remarkable by its peacefulness after such a destructive past.  While the EU has a stodgy technocratic reputation, its steady peaceful expansion has far outstripped the 20th century expansion of the U.S.  At the same time, I’m quite proud of the role the U.S. played in the reunification of Berlin and Germany as a whole.  We put our faith in the peaceful democratic nature of our two-time enemy and that belief has been redeemed.


Quick take on Obama’s speech

I haven’t been able to fully process it, but sounds like it was good one.  The specifics in Egypt weren’t mentioned but in addition to inviting the Muslim Brotherhood there are other indicators that the U.S. is taking a position of being agnostic about who wins elections so long as they eschew violence and then once in power stay democratic.   I’m going in large part off the Marc Lynch analysis which is worth reading in its entirety.

Had a busy day or I’d say more.  One other point of note, Obama does really seem to be going all out on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.  I think his actions already calling for a total settlement halt has earned some valuable credibility on this issue.  David Ignatius did have a good op-ed on the matter saying what steps can be done to follow-up.  One key point, this will be very hard, but I also fear we’re approaching the end of viability for the two state solution.  I’m not sure I’d wouldn’t want to put most of my chips on getting demonstrable results, but I could see the argument that we have to try rather than just making critical statements and distancing ourselves from the Netanyahu government.


Muslim Brotherhood will be at Obama’s Speech in Cairo

This excellent news was comes from Al-Arabiya via the Project on Middle East Democracy.  Here’s the summary by Max:

Al-Arabiya has just reported that, under pressure from the United States, the Secretariat-General of the lower house of the Egyptian Parliament invited ten members of the Muslim Brotherhood parliamentary bloc to attend Barack Obama’s speech in Cairo on Thursday.

The delegation will include Dr. Saad Al Katatni, leader of the bloc, who said that the invitation “came as a compromise solution between the American administration and the Egyptian government, considering that there is increasing pressure on the administration from the American press on the necessity of meeting with all members of opposition and other influential forces…”

In other good news, Brotherhood members are being allowed to return to the legal bar.  Katatni credited the administration’s actions to pressure from the U.S. press.  Regardless of the motivation, this is excellent news.  The Muslim Brotherhood is an Islamist movement, as one might expect, but a non-violent one despite oppression from the government.  I don’t think that even with 5 billion some dollars in aid a year to Egypt we’re really in a position to suddenly democratize the country, but we could do a lot more to work by getting over fears of Islamists. 

I’m now much less worried about the Cairo speech.  If this is how they’re setting it up, than the administration might find a way to balance dignity and democracy support after all.  We’ll know for sure on the fourth.


Blog roll addition: Marc Lynch

There's a great discussion up on the Foreign Policy blog of Tom Ricks' new book: the Gamble.  Everyone seems agreed that it's a good book and I tend to find Ricks reporting quite useful.  That said, I quite disagree with his conclusions.  Happily, Marc Lynch is way ahead of me and challenges Ricks directly on two vital points.

First is the near-complete absence of the Status of Forces Agreement, which Iraqis call the Withdrawal Agreement. The SOFA sets an end-date for the withdrawal of U.S. troops, at December 31, 2011... Ricks may feel that the United States will ignore these requirements, or that the Iraqis don't really mean it, or that they are a bad idea. But he makes no argument one way or the other, instead acting as if it simply doesn't exist. To the extent that this reflects the mindset among his key informants, that's a problem...

Second is the near-complete absence of Iraqis. In 325 pages of text, I could find only ten pages which quoted an Iraqi of any description, and only two unmediated by an American military official.


Here's Ricks's response where he forthrightly addresses the points:

1. On the Status of Forces Agreement, I just don't think it is that meaningful.

As I watched it come together in Baghdad, it appeared to me to simply be a way of taking the American military presence off the table as a divisive issue in Iraqi politics. That is, it was much more about 2009 than about 2011. So I make less of it than others do. I might be wrong...

2. On the absence of Iraqi voices, Lynch's criticism again is correct.

I was aware of this lack, painfully so, but decided against trying to paper it over with some desultory interviews. I don't speak Arabic and I am not an expert on Iraq, so I think I would have done of mediocre job of trying to figure out the Iraqi side of the story. What I know a lot about is the U.S. military. I even speak some of its dialects... The absence of Iraqis in my book is especially significant because Iraqi solutions will be the key to the end of this story. That is, Iraqis will make the decisions that determine how this all ends.

I take this to mean that Ricks thinks the SOFA was a successful con-job by American and perhaps also by Iraqi politicians.  Perhaps it is, but Ricks never explains how he thinks we can pull this stunt in perpetuity. 

There's an old adage on strategy cited here by Gen. Franks: "In any war plan the enemy gets a vote."  Modifying it slightly, in any occupation, the populace gets a vote.  If that vote doesn't come in the form of democracy it can still come in the form of support for insurgency or counter-insurgency.  I don't see how it is possible to form any conclusion about what we should do in Iraq without taking into account the views of the Iraqi people.  I mean this in a realist sense, not a liberal sense.  We may be able to stay in Iraq in perpetuity but if we do so without popular support the Iraqi people can extract a heavy price. 

To be clear, I am not saying that I'm a regional expert or an expert on the conflict.  Ricks certainly knows it orders of magnitude better than I.  He is an excellent writer and as his responses show above a self-aware and an honest one.  I think his reaching a conclusion about staying without grappling with Iraqi popular opinion is probably attributable to status quo bias.  In someways leaving Iraqi can be literally unthinkable in much the same way that I'm sure leaving Vietnam was unthinkable.  Giving up control can be a very difficult step to take until one is pushed.

Since I am not a regional expert, let me recommend someone who is: check out Marc Lynch on the foreign policy blog.


Sins of Empires

Yglesias picks up an interesting quote from French President Sarkozy:

It isn’t just in Europe that there’s a longing for freedom; it’s all over the world. We have all — and, in her history, like others, France has — had to deal with great disillusionment when we forgot that freedom was for everyone.

Yglesias’s notes that “under the administration of George W. Bush it became commonplace to argue that to support an international agenda aimed at “freedom” actually required the United States to espouse the coercive military domination of foreign countries.” 

The issue here is one of individual freedom versus collective freedom.  That is to say human rights versus self-determination.  The two run together but they’re not the same thing.  Pluralistic empires often do undermine social arrangements contrary to an individualistic concept of human rights such as tribal, racial, or religious distinctions.  Minorities will often be privileged as their past mistreatment will mean that they’re willing to work with the empire.  That said, when racial divisions privilege those at the heart of the empire, they will likely be maintained.  Similarly, the minority privileging or even creating ways of empire will often sow seeds of strife that are at the basis of post-colonial conflict.

I think the American hubris is a bit different than Sarkozy’s quote.  Specifically, we forget that people define freedom on their terms rather than our terms.  This is often stated as a critique of universalistic human rights, but that’s not what I mean.  Colonized people are not unusual in wanting things on their terms, the same is certainly true of us.  That said, on issues like freedom of religion and women’s rights, local self-determination seems to be at odds with human rights.  This conflict makes it all too easy to discount the views of those who don’t approve of the job the intervener is doing.

In any event, this gets to why I’m a big fan of electoral democracy in occupation situations.  Yes, elections can actually exacerbate existing tensions.  However, self-determination ultimately requires a local government willing to stand up to occupiers.  Boycotts can screw up this process but in the Iraqi case at least, the boycotters don’t seem to have repeated that mistake in the most recent set of elections.


Enough about radicalism

Tariq over at POMED summarizes Robert Satloff’s complaint about Kristin Lord’s public diplomacy report.

He says, “In the post-9/11 era, the purpose of public diplomacy is not some amorphous desire to have America better understood or even the more pointed objective of winning the support of international public opinion for U.S. foreign policy…Today, that mission is how to identify, nurture and support mainstream Muslims in the ideological and political contest against radical Islamism….there is none of this in the Brookings report…”

POMED’s summary notes of the event in question can be found here. [Emphasis mine]

Biden made a reference to radical Islam as well at the press conference where the new national security team was revealed.  I think the radical-moderate distinction is not a sound nor a useful one.  Generally speaking it becomes very easy to dismiss anyone whose agenda is problematic for the status quo as a radical.  However, while we’re rarely going to agree with genuine radical Islamists, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re our enemy.  The problem are violent radicals both Islamist and otherwise.

It’s also important not to conflate all violent non-state actors, but in this case we’re talking public diplomacy and not military or even economic strikes.  Encouraging non-violence as a tool is a good general rule.  Of course, we should also be promoting values like democracy which are typically at odds with radical Islamism but often are at odds with ‘moderate’ Muslim leaders as well; e.g. our dear allies in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.


Well, okay, if you say so.

Via Ackerman, according to the the Associated Press, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has told the Security Council that “the international community should set a timeline to end the war in Afghanistan.”

Here’s Ackerman’s analysis:

Is it too much of a stretch to wonder if Karzai is floating the timetable idea as a bankshot way of promoting his negotiations with the Taliban? In other words, is he trying to box people -- namely, Americans -- in to thinking that the only thing less desirable than negotiating with the insurgency is to set a date for leaving Afghanistan, so they better support the first option?

And another thing, in the context of those negotiations: If it's true that the Taliban feels stronger than the government right now, would it feel such an incentive to negotiate if it believed Karzai was going to kick the U.S. out no matter what?

I really don’t know how to read this.  If it is a bankshot it’s a hell of a maneuver.  I don’t think Obama would be opposed to such negotiations in the first place, so I’m not sure why they’re turning the screws on us.  First and foremost I’m guessing it’s just the more straightforward example Ackerman raises, response to domestic pressure.

I guess it’s time to put a more thought in how we can exit in a manner that best serves the Afghan people and kneecaps Al Qaeda.  Just exiting will put a damper on recruitment, but Osama was in Afghanistan well before we were.


And it's official

Jane Perlez of the NY Times Reports:

Under pressure over impending impeachment charges, President Pervez Musharraf announced he would resign Monday, ending nearly nine years as one of the United States’ most important allies in the campaign against terrorism.

Speaking on television from his presidential office here at 1 p.m., Mr. Musharraf, dressed in a gray suit and tie, said that after consulting with his aides, “I have decided to resign today.” He said he was putting national interest above “personal bravado.”

And with that, we can move Pakistan fully back into the democratic states column. That isn’t to say this will be a panacea, Pakistan has had elected leadership before, including many of the current party leaders, that have failed their country. But the way the removal of Musharraf went down, first pressure from the courts then from the parliament may strengthen democratic norms. Hopefully the courts issue will be easily resolved now as there was no way the chief justice and Musharraf would both be in the government again.

As for the implications for the U.S., we can actually probably expect less of a carte blanche when going after the Taliban or Al Qaeda in Pakistani territory. I hope in the mid-term getting Pakistan’s house in order will make the north west territories issues easier to handle. Of course, we’re also going to need to get a deal between Pakistan and Afghanistan, in some ways Pakistan can benefit from an unstable neighbor.


Good news for a change

Pakistan’s military dictator Perez Musharraf has apparently worked out conditions for stepping down according to Pakistan’s Daily Times (via Ackerman). His opponents in the Parliament had started impeachment proceedings, although given the 2/3s majority needed they were far from a sure thing. The deal is he gets immunity from prosecution. That seems reasonable to me, Musharraf is no Pinochet, he’s certainly done violence to the constitution and has repressed some protests, but I’m not aware of anything that could land him before the International Criminal Court for example.

Ackerman notes that you should believe it when you see it, but it does seem quite likely now. The Post’s reporting adds an interesting note on the U.S. end:

The White House is thought to be split on how strongly to back Musharraf, especially since the call for his impeachment. But while Vice President Cheney is often cited as Musharraf’s principal backer in Washington, officials there said that Cheney now agrees that the president should be cut off. They said that it was Bush who had not committed to a final break with someone he still considers a counterterrorism ally.

"The vast majority of the U.S. government has moved beyond their original attachment to Musharraf," one official said.

I’m guessing this is because President Bush is more sentimental and personality based. Cheney probably figures that Musharraf’s utility is at an end and will instead seek to develop ties with other figures in Pakistan’s military.

After the cut, Ackerman has some interesting thoughts on what’s next:

Continue reading "Good news for a change" »


Ethnic cleansing in Iraq

While the Anbar awakening, the truce with Sadr, and the Surge are widely cited as chief drivers of reduced violence in Iraq, there’s also some discussion on the impact of ethnic cleansing (or sectarian cleansing in this case). Namely, that in Baghdad pre-surge sectarian groups consolidated their control over various neighborhoods, driving out or killing members of other groups. The goals of these sectarian killers had been largely achieved pre-Surge, which suggests that the drop in violence in Baghdad may also have occurred in part because the bad guys had what they wanted.

Steve Biddle, Michael O’Hanlon, and Ken Pollack pushed back against this argument in Foreign Affairs

It is worth noting that separation resulting from sectarian cleansing was not the chief cause of the reduction in violence, as some have claimed. Much of Iraq remains intermingled but increasingly peaceful. And whereas a cleansing argument implies that casualties should have gone down in Baghdad, for example, as mixed neighborhoods were cleansed, casualties actually went up consistently during the sectarian warfare of 2006. Cleansing may have reduced the violence somewhat in some places, but it was not the main cause..

However, as Spencer Ackerman among others notes, this makes no sense. Of course ethnic cleansing leads to more violence while it’s occurring, the question is whether the violence dropped after the polarization of Baghdad neighborhoods was done. I suspect what they’re responding to is the no longer widely discussed idea of partitioning Iraq. It’s a fair argument to say that partition might provoke further ethnic cleansing and thus cause a great deal of violence even if it ultimately stabilizes the situation. But that point is irrelevant to the discussion of the recent drop in violence in Iraq. Regardless, Ackerman goes on to make a more important point:

But there’s actually a broader point to make. Ethnic cleansing is a crime against humanity. The U.S. quite rightly intervened in the Balkans in the 1990s to stop it. The horrors of ethnic cleansing are unfathomable to those who haven’t experienced them. What you really, really shouldn’t do is treat other people’s ethnic cleansing as a debaters’ point. It’s perverse, isn’t it, the way that ethnic cleansing that occurred during a U.S. occupation can be treated so nonchalantly by Washington polemicists.


China and human rights

So as the security Olympics approach, it’s quite clear that China hasn’t kept any of its promises to the International Olympics Committee and in fact is cracking down harder than usual. This isn’t particularly unexpected, there have been cases where concessions have been won from the Chinese, typically the release of political prisoners, but lately we seem to be having trouble even getting that.

I don’t believe the problem is that it’s impossible to get improvements; however, I do believe that it is an area where the Chinese government can be counted on to bargain hard and backslide whenever they can. An obvious answer is to play hardball back. However, in many cases that’s likely to antagonize the nationalism of the Chinese people. The way we pick these battles, our criticism often come at times when they don’t have much support in China proper.

I think an effective agenda pushing for slow reform in China would have to pick its battles and tactics much more effectively. That said, it’s simply a difficult agenda, that doesn’t mean it isn’t worthwhile, but there’s more areas for leverage when it comes to trade, the environment, etc.


One cool thing about Sen. Webb

Given that I support the argument against making him Veep, I think it’s only fair to also highlight one area where he’s a Democratic standout.

Take it away Spencer Ackerman:

Katrina vanden Heuvel reports on Jim Webb’s efforts to do something profoundly valuable for the country: end the drug war.

In addition to the drug supply remaining constant, the incarceration epidemic has failed to curb illegal drug use while also “devastating our minority communities.” Senator Webb said, “the number of persons in custody on drug charges increased thirteen times in the past 25 years…[And] when it comes to incarceration for drug offenses, the racial disparities are truly alarming. Although African Americans constitute 14 percent of regular drug users, they are 37 percent of those arrested for drug offenses, and 56 percent of persons in state prisons for drug crimes…Our current combination of enforcement, diversion, interdiction, treatment and prevention is not working the way we need it to…There has been little effort to take a comprehensive look at the relationship between the many interlocking pieces of drug policy.”

And that’s by design. For an entire generation, avaricious white politicians have ignored how the repeatedly-refuted drug war has compounded, not alleviated, the scourge of narcotics in minority communities. Why? Because there aren’t enough votes in solving the problems of poor, non-white America.

For me, it was actually international relations that took me from skeptical of the war on drugs to strongly opposed. Civil wars and organized crime the world over are financed by drugs. It all sees so futile to me. We’re genuinely winning in Columbia, FARC has lost a lot of men and leadership and the country is doing better as a whole, but even so the amount of coca cultivation rises. Trying to fight poppy cultivation is a critical complicating factors we’re facing in Afghanistan.

To be clear I love the U.S.’s moves against smoking in recent years. They’ve been highly effective and made many places much more pleasant for non-smokers to boot. I’m perfectly fine with even some harsh public health measures, but how about we do it without shooting people, eh?


Zimbabwe

I had been optimistic when Mugabe lost the parliamentary elections, it had seemed as if his hold on power had slipped far enough that it was over. It appears I’ve underestimated his capacity for repression.

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Mark Bellamy and Stephen Morrison over at the CSIS Africa Policy Forum outline what the U.S. could be doing to help.

It is now possible to transcend this indifference. Mugabe’s unpopularity, his crumbling reputation as a liberation hero, the increasing savagery of his security chiefs, and the regional economic and social costs of Zimbabwe’s meltdown — all favor an external diplomatic push...

A top priority has to be ending South Africa’s patronage of Mugabe through diplomatic pressure that exploits growing regional dissatisfaction with Thabo Mbeki’s leadership. Botswana’s new President Ian Khama, Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa, Tanzanian President and African Union head Jakaya Kikwete, as well as Mbeki’s presumptive successor Jacob Zuma, all understand the urgent need to act on Zimbabwe. Other strong African voices, such as Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, are also now questioning South Africa’s role in Zimbabwe and calling for change. Once the South African linchpin is removed, the other external props that sustain Mugabe — Angola, Namibia, Equatorial
Guinea, Libya, and China — will cease to matter.

As I understand it, the value added the U.S. provides under their proposal is that of an organizer. Appoint an envoy, the envoy gathers an international team, that team works for the long haul to change the situation. Presumably the envoy would have relevant credibility and be well positioned to answer Mugabe’s constant charges that all criticism is a re-colonization attempt. This envoy then, with the official backing of the U.S. would be able to organize figures ready to criticize government already. Only once that team, with substantial African representation, would we probably be in a position to convert those not critical.

Picture taken by frontlineblogger and used under a Creative Commons license. Here’s the blog of the picture taker.


Blogroll additions: Brad DeLong

Brad Delong is a prominent liberal economic blogger that I’ve been reading for several months now. He covers a range of economic and political topics, including some in depth class notes and analyses that honestly I typically skim but make me think his classes would be pretty dang interesting.

I’m including him because I’m on a blogroll adding spree and to celebrate his attempt to get formal proceedings started against another Berkeley professor and prominent torture apologist, John Yoo. Spencer Ackerman (who I’m also intending to add in the near future, wrote up this story for the Washington Independent and includes a brief summary on his blog, Attackerman.

Good hunting Prof. DeLong.


Alternatives to war crimes trials

Over at the PCR blog another blogger friend, Shannon Hayden, raises the question of how likely war crime trials of Americans, possibly by foreigners could be:

We were once treated to an off-the-record briefing with a former Member of Congress on the state of all things congressional; when a question about possible war crimes prosecutions arose, it went over like a lead balloon. Can you even imagine the firestorm of debate and soul-searching that would ensue if an American official was detained abroad on such charges?

The general read is that it doesn’t seem that likely, at home or abroad, at least for now. That said, JB over at Balkinization discusses in America short of trials.

A series of congressional investigations into the interrogation and detention policies of the previous Administration, or a special Presidential "truth commission" like the 9/11 Commission would have certain advantages. They would require only that the next Administration cooperate with Congress-- for example, by declassifying certain OLC opinions and other documents that should never have been classified, and by giving permission for certain executive branch officials to testify before Congress.

He goes over a few obstacles but concludes that it’s far more likely than criminal trials of someone in the current admin.


Zimbabwe Round-Up

Quick news from Zimbabwe round-up. In the latest elections the opposition won the parliament and had somewhere between a plurality and majority victory for the Presidency. The official results haven’t been released for weeks and will be highly tainted. Opposition figures are being arrested and harrassed, although that’s fairly par for the course for Mugabe’s regime.

Johanne over at Democratic Piece found that Mugabe is having a hard time getting more guns. The reason is that citizens of other African countries, out of solidarity, aren’t let a Chinese cargo ship dock to offload them

The New York Times reported today that Angola prohibited the offloading of the arms shipment destined for Zimbabwe. The Chinese vessel carrying the cargo - the “ship of shame” as it’s called in African newspapers - previously attempted to unload the 77 tons of arms - including rockets, ammunition, and bombs - in Durban, South Africa, but was blocked by dock workers.

Angola, a longtime ally of Zimbabwe, was probably Zimbabwe’s best hope for receiving this arms shipment. After Durban, the vessel bypassed Namibia when the Legal Assistance Centre of Namibia announced in advance that it would thwart the ship from unloading. After a second failure to unload, the ship will likely now return to China.

Speaking of Zimbabwe, Mark Irvine, a friend over at the PCR blog, found a great quote in a NY Times story by Barry Bearak about his imprisonment for doing election coverage in Zimbabwe:

I was being charged with the crime of “committing journalism.” One of my captors, Detective Inspector Dani Rangwani, described the offense to me as something despicable, almost hissing the words: “You’ve been gathering, processing and disseminating the news.”

I tend to agree with the analysis of Jack, also at the Democratic Piece. A democratic transition is likely in progress. That was my feeling once I heard about the major electoral losses being suffered in [parliament]. If that kind of news is getting out, it’s probably already mostly over. Question is just how the end game plays out. Mugabe is an amazingly inept leader, inflation is presently at wheel barrel of money levels. He’s basically just in power because he was an anti-colonial revolutionary leader (once again, thanks George Washington for only serving two terms, much obliged). Some of that lot proved good people, many of them were greatly corrupted by power. However, happily, it’s a generation that’s literally dying off. As it leaves, the countries in question can begin to recover from another terrible legacy of colonialism.

[Updates: Jack fixes my clarification noting, sensibly, that there’s a transition in progress but it won’t necessarily be democratic. See comments. Makes sense to me.]


School House Rock didn't cover this

Marty Lederman reads a Washington Post article and learns that Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) managed to add an earmark to the text of a bill after both houses of Congress had voted for itbut before it was signed.

Meredith Kenny, Rep. Young’s spokeswoman, explained further that "the lawmaker always intended for the earmark to designate money to the interchange project, not generic highway improvements. So committee aides altered the bill to reflect that after the House and Senate had approved it. ’There was an error in the bill and so it was corrected,’ she said."

"There was an error in the bill" -- the error being that the earmark reflected Congress’s presumed intent rather than Rep. Young’s -- "and so it was corrected."...

(Local planning officials in Florida had no desire to build the [earmarked] interchange, and "were outraged to learn after the highway bill became law that they were required to spend $10 million on a project they did not want." It appears the only one who did want the interchange was developer Daniel Aronoff, whose land would increase substantially in value by virtue of the I-75 interchange. Coincidentally, Aronoff hosted a fundraiser in 2005 that garnered about $40,000 for Rep. Young’s re-election campaign.)

The Senate is calling for a Justice Department investigation. Lederman asks some good follow-ups.

I don’t think I truly want to know the answer to this question, but here goes: How is it, exactly, that an aide to a congressman can, quite literally and physically, "correct" a bill in between the time it is approved by the House and the Senate and the time it is enrolled and sent to the President? Can anyone just walk right into whatever congressional office it is that handles the bill, ask for the official copy of the text, take out a red pen, and start "correcting"? (Imagine David Addington with such an opportunity! Who needs signing statements?)

I tend to think earmark complaints are overblown. Discretionary spending is a small part of the overall non-defense budget. That said, this sort of thing may be a key factor undermining the strength of Congress versus the executive branch. So, in falsifiable terms, more explicitly directed money from Congress (including defense spending) would lead to fewer vetoes, fewer overrides of vetos, fewer investigations of the executive branch, and more support for Presidential proposals, like treaties.

However, I’m not really sure how much is fixable. For that I’ll need to find some with some comparative government expertise in legislatures.


Should John Yoo lose tenure?

There’s some discussion of whether John Yoo should lose his tenure at Berkeley now that the torture memos he wrote are out. I’ll address those in greater detail later. Anyways, I’m not sure how I come down on the tenure thing. I was fairly sympathetic because I thought this was basically Berkeley’s fault. They gave him tenure after he was a known war criminal. But it actually sounds like he had been on Berkeley’s staff in 1999 and got tenure then.

So it does seem like he violated legal ethics after having gotten tenure, so maybe it’s fair to go after that. That said, it would seem easier to just disbar him. And, the main important thing is that he be arrested. And really, once he’s in prison, who really cares if he has tenure?


Quick follow up on Pakistan

On the whole, I’ve been pretty satisfied with how things are going in Pakistan.

Kevin Drum notes that U.S. policy still seems fairly screwed up: "On Tuesday, senior coalition partner Nawaz Sharif gave the visiting Americans a public scolding for using Pakistan as a "killing field" and relying too much on [President Pervez] Musharraf." And our apparent response was to up the number of attacks our Predators are making before we lose the informal agreement that lets us make them. That seems like a strategy that’s just going to further worsen the relationship, particularly since it’s more likely that one of these rushed strikes is going to go bad.

However, there is a silver lining here. The updated pace of operations is another indication that we’re grudging accepting the fact that we’re losing our man in Pakistan. I haven’t seen us say anything critical about the new majority in parliament. And happily that new majority seems to be holding together and focusing on the right issues. Their first step has been working towards reinstating judges kicked off the bench by Musharraf. Still an open question whether they’ll be able to restore the Supreme Court position of Musharraf’s nemesis: chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry. But regardless of how that battle goes, getting the rest of the judiciary back is a vital step. It’s also a step that will help the parliament in their future battles on other issues.

So part of this positive result is that the U.S. has gotten out of the way of Pakistan’s public will. Another part is that while President Bush was still too supportive of Musharraf, he was actively undercut by Senators Kerry, Biden, and Hagel who personally monitored Pakistan’s elections. During much of the twentieth century, the U.S. would be willing to actively subvert democracy to support a strongman in such a strategically critical position. What’s happening now is a change for the better in all ways.


10 Easy Steps?

My friend Moti asked me the other day about Naomi Wolf’s article/book on "Fascist America, in 10 Easy Steps"

Interesting article, but not a rigorous one.  The article lists a bunch of bad authoritarian behavior but doesn’t list thresh-holds.  Calling someone a traitor isn’t the same as arresting them.  Denial of travel rights isn’t the same as full detention.  There’s a fair amount of bad stuff going on, but speaking as an analyst, going by those metrics the authoritarian risk isn’t yet critical.

Going off her list, I’ll give her points 1 and 4 unqualified.  2 and 3 have major warning signs.  5 and 8 have some rather bad cases.  6, 7, 9, and 10 I think she’s seriously pushing it.  So I think the article mostly works on the "another reason all this stuff is bad" but despite a lot of anecdotes doesn’t get to the level of putting this all in a historical or theoretical context.

After the break, more details on the her 10 steps.

Continue reading "10 Easy Steps?" »


Is the law on De-Bathification progress?

In Iraq, the Surge in Baghdad and perhaps more importantly the Anbar Awakening appear to have gotten violence and American casualties down from their 2006 and 2007 peaks.  That said, the surge is temporary, our military runs out of troops come May and we’ll have to cut back or make some truly radical changes.  The strategic point of the Surge was buy breathing room to achieve political goals.  Up until a week ago, there were no results.  But now, the Iraqi parliament has passed one of the Surge’s key goals: a law to roll back de-Batthification.

For those that don’t know, Saddam Hussein’s party was the Baath party.  While the party was secular, it was largely made up by members of Hussein’s sect, Sunnis.  Shortly into the occupations, Baath party members were purged from the government and military.  This purge, while having an obvious logical basis, helped alienate Sunnis and is thought by many to have gone too far.  President Bush has stated revising the de-Baathification law is key and Congress put that statement in our political benchmarks.

So here’s the big question: is the new law any good?

Pending information on implementation of the law, the short answer is probably not.  The longer answer after the break.

Continue reading "Is the law on De-Bathification progress?" »


Quick note of displeasure with Edwards

I normally try to avoid too much day-to-day campaign coverage.  There’s better sources for that, see my blogroll.  But, since I did endorse Edwards for Iowa, I wanted to note my displeasure with a cheap shot he took.

"It’s not easy," Clinton said, "and I couldn’t do it if I didn’t passionately believe it was the right thing to do. You know, I have so many opportunities from this country, and I just don’t want to see us fall backwards."

Edwards, speaking to reporters in Laconia, N.H., later in the day, took advantage of Clinton’s emotional display to helpfully point out, "I think what we need in a commander-in-chief is strength and resolve, and presidential campaigns are tough business, but being president of the United States is also tough business..."

For the record, Obama was asked about Clinton’s welling up, and told reporters, "I didn’t see what happened ... [but] I know this process is a grind, so that’s not something I care to comment on."

I also tend to think Ezra Klein’s friend David Roberts is right that I’ve seen worse sexism than racism in the race so far (Yglesias linked to a similar point).  That said, this may in part because Clinton and not Obama had been the front runner.  For now I’m considering this a one-time aberration on Edwards part, in the future I hope he follows Obama’s method.

Regardless, no endorsements for New Hampshire.  I’m pretty happy with where the Democratic race is now.  We’ll be seeing for the next few weeks how Obama stands up to hard testing.  So far, so good.

[Update: Edwards clarifies that he didn't mean it as a shot (1:45).    Via Amanda Marcotte who has more.  I figured that was coming which was why I considered this an aberration.  I expect in the future he'll follow more an Obama line when baited with such questions.]


Apologists for Musharraf

Salon has one of the better apologies for Musharraf I’ve read recently, so I’ll reply to that. The argument is correct on a few key points:

One of President Bush’s more appalling flights of fancy in the foreign policy arena is his belief that democratically elected governments will somehow be more inclined than incumbent authoritarians to support U.S. policy objectives that are wildly unpopular with their own electorates.

This is true as is the support he sites. Thus the follow-up statement is also probably true:

Polls indicate that the majority of Pakistan’s population today is overwhelmingly opposed to many U.S. policy goals, including killing or capturing al-Qaida and Taliban affiliates and their Pakistani allies. In such an environment, any government produced by genuinely open elections will not be willing or able to support U.S. objectives in the war on terror.

As for this statement (emphasis mine):

In 2002, President Pervez Musharraf allowed carefully controlled elections to be held in Pakistan. Those elections produced a relatively competent technocratic administration, including Shaukat Aziz.... In 2004, Aziz became prime minister as well as finance minister; during his three years as Pakistan’s head of government, he presided over the most sustained period of economic reform and modernization in the country’s history. But Washington, in its bipartisan wisdom, said that this was not good enough.

Perhaps Washington is troubled because Musharraf is wildly unpopular and has been firing judges and imposing martial law. Here’s the detailed polling from November 2007, his approval sits around 30% and two thirds of the country want him to resign. Pakistan is not on the verge of being taken over by fundamentalists, they aren’t that popular; however, it is being actively destabilized by a U.S. sponsored dictator that’s clinging to undeserved power.

Democracy in Pakistan won’t solve Afghanistan, but neither will dictatorship. Afghanistan is hard, but if we try to force Pakistan to solve our problem we will breed resentment and radicalism in the Pakistani people. I didn’t think backing Bhutto specifically was the way to go and I don’t know who is best for Pakistan now. But I do know that the Pakistani people want Musharraf out and that our aid is widely blamed for keeping him in power. So I take great pride in the fact that this article thinks most of the Dems are wrong.

(Side note for policy wonks regarding the emphasis, Naomi Klein argues that U.S. policy routinely uses dictators and disasters to forward laissez faire capitalism, she calls it shock therapy. The thinking that "economic reform and modernization" are all we should want is in keeping with the policy she’s critiquing. However, we’re moving away form Musharraf which suggests, surprise surprise, that U.S. policy isn’t monocausal.)


Bloody hell

Benazir Bhutto, a top opposition leader in Pakistan, was killed by suicide bombing.

Ackerman adds, "The most likely culprit is the Pakistani Taliban and
al-Qaeda. But it’s not exactly an event met with tears by the Pakistani military, which thoroughly controls the government and the economy."

That said, President Musharraf will almost certainly use this as an opportunity to consolidate power.  He may well make a play to attempt to transition into a fully autocratic state with U.S. patronage, like say Egypt or Saudi Arabia.  With nukes and a real but minority Islamist terrorist opposition there’s a good chance the U.S. will let him.  If we do, there [will] certainly be more bloodshed to come.


Good News for people who like Democracy

Hugo Chavez, President of Venezuela, held a referendum to consolidate power as a potential president for life. He lost and acknowledged it! Prior to today, I’d probably default to describing him as an populist autocrat, I’ve now mentally upgraded him to populist with autocratic tendencies.

As Ezra Klein notes, this definitely means that Venezuela is not totalitarian, although I don’t think anyone who knows their comparative governments and had any sense actually believed that. I also tend to agree with Ezra’s commentators that the true test of whether I can drop the autocratic tendencies will be whether he steps aside when in five years his six year term is up.

Every crisis president tends to overreach, in a healthy society even their allies will eventually push back as happened in Venezuela. Chavez was more ambitious than most and did deserve to be smacked down, but now that he’s accepted it he has a chance to moderate it. With any luck he’ll switch to behaving a bit more like his comrade Bolivian President Evo Morales who is still trying to introduce socialism. Via Yglesias, for here’s an analysis that breaks down the good and bad parts of the referendum (from before the vote) and not surprisingly finds it bad on the balance.


Bit of good news from Pakistan

Not from Musharraf of course, but it sounds as if the opposition forces are finally joining up:

"Pakistan and Musharraf cannot coexist. He must go. My dialogue with him is over," [former prime minister Benazir Bhutto] told a cable TV channel. She said that once the seven-day detention order against her expires, she intends "to build a broad-based alliance with a one-point agenda for the restoration of democracy and the rule of law." Sources said intermediaries had arranged phone conversations involving her, [former prime minister] Sharif, Khan and Qazi Hussain Ahmed, head of the Jamaat-e-Islami religious party.

...A spokesman for Sharif said that he was "very happy" about Bhutto’s comments and that they "vindicated our position that all democratic forces must put aside their differences." The "new twist of martial law" may end up being the impetus for "a new start, and a new movement to restore democracy," the spokesman, Ehsan Iqbal, said by cellphone from an undisclosed location in Pakistan.

Sharif was actually the one in charge when Musharraf launched his original coup. Despite that, the U.S. has mostly worked with Bhutto in an attempt to work out a power sharing deal that would have avoided this crisis. So far we’ve been weakly critical of the emergency rule. There’s efforts in Congress to cut-off military (if not other) aid until this situation is resolved, I tend to think that’s a good idea. That said, the U.S. only has so much voice in this.

Anyways, I don’t know how this is going to go down, but no good result would be possible without the opposition first unifying. Since the U.S.’s preferred deal is now off the table, hopefully we’ll move more firmly into the pro-democracy camp.


Bad news from Pakistan

Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto just returned and was attacked, apparently via grenade and suicide bomb. She survived but as of last count 120 at the rally were dead.

Body parts were strewn for hundreds of yards around, and men walked away from the scene covered head to toe in blood. Dozens of ambulances, sirens wailing, ferried the injured and the dead to hospitals. Survivors sat by the side of the road, weeping. The sweet smell of rose petals -- revelers had tossed them into the air to welcome Bhutto -- mingled with the heavy scent of death.

After the explosions, Bhutto’s supporters reported hearing gunshots, and there were three indentations in the glass screen of her truck that appeared to have been caused by bullets.

Raja Mubasher, a party activist, said the attack came as members of the crowd were shouting slogans of celebration. One minute, he said, "people were jubilant. They were happy. Our leader had come back after eight years." The next, he said, "their legs were broken. Their heads were broken. Their hands were broken." In an instant, he said, the ground was littered with more than 100 bodies...

Karachi’s police chief, Farooqi Ahmed, denied that his forces were anything less than vigilant and noted that among the dead were a large number of police officers. Ahmed also said Bhutto would have "definitely" been killed had it not been for extra security efforts provided by the government, including a bullet- and shock-resistant container that Bhutto was riding in, and jamming devices designed to keep blasts from detonating near her vehicle. Bhutto was evacuated quickly after the attack.

Thank God she survived, but this is worse than the already pessimistic Pakistan briefing I heard two weeks ago which didn’t even list a major Taliban/Al Qaeda attack as possible escalating scenario. I buy the idea that the government did their best to protect her. They were involved enough in her protection that if this were an inside job she’d probably either be dead or we’d have a government-loyalist fight.

There’s really not that I can see the U.S. can doing here aside from not make the situation worse. (There’s a lot we could do in Afghanistan to take some pressure off, but that’s a different post) I just hope the Pakistani government is able to unify the people enough to take on this challenge. I don’t think that’s going to be possible if they continue to exclude Nawaz Sharif. This isn’t to say I favor a unity government (although I obviously favor free and fair elections) but they should let him return and be part of a loyal opposition.


Your questions, answered!

Today’s query is from Matthew Yglesias (perhaps he meant it to be rhetorical):

Question: Which do conservatives hate more, Soros or immigrants?

Answer: Elites: Soros. Base: Immigrants.

I’m not sure there’s a similar divide on the Democratic side in terms of hated figures on the right. It could involve religion, but that’s more a moderate/radical divide than a base/elite divide. The elites are generally more pro-trade, but I don’t care that much about the enemies of trade on the other side. Ditto with intervention at this point.